Why he might not: Great as he is with his bat, Cabrera isn’t too quick on the base paths and is a below average fielder. If MVP voters had treated these aspects of the game with more significance last year, Cabrera likely would not have taken home the award. He’s also entering into his 30s, when most players begin leaving their peak playing days behind (Barry Bonds on steroids doesn’t count).
Why he might not: That (surprisingly) uncertain-looking Yankee lineup could also hurt Cano’s chances at making an MVP run – no matter how well a player does, it’s rare to see it go to someone on an unsuccessful team. Cano won’t shine too brightly if the Yanks’ stars like Derek Jeter, Kevin Youkilis and Travis Hafner play like their age. There’s also Cano’s sub-.100 average from the 2012 postseason, which must have left a bad taste in his mouth.
Why he might not: Hamilton hit .359 with a .411 OBP in 2010, while also leading the league in slugging percentage. Over the past two seasons, that’s proven to be a torrid pace he just couldn’t keep up with. He’s remained among the best in the majors, but he’ll probably have to return to superhuman form to have a shot. In reality, he’s 32 this year and just signed to a very lucrative five-year contract. It might be ironic, but big deals are often made before a player declines, not while he’s still on the rise. We’ll see how Hamilton handles the big payday.
Why he might not: Prince is a big man that casts a big shadow, but last season, teammate Miguel Cabrera towered over Fielder and his admirable contributions to the offense. Of course, there’s also 2011 MVP Justin Verlander taking the mound as Detroit’s ace. Simply put, he’s on a tough team to prove himself as the standout. That along with his sub-par fielding and need to return to true slugger status (his HR total fell by eight last year) will make it a tough situation for Fielder to take the trophy.
Why he might not: Did we mention this kid is barely old enough to drink? Good as he is, he’s still the dark horse because of his age. He only has one season under his belt and as much potential as he has, such an amazing rookie season could lead to a sophomore slump, or sophomore ‘come-back-to-earth’ in Trout’s case. MVP voting that favors guys with the most home runs and RBIs also hurt his cause last year, and the voter mentality will probably be similar in 2013.
Why he might not: In order to repeat, Posey is probably going to have to keep his average way up, like it was last season. He’s not a huge guy and won’t be among the league’s home run leaders any time soon (although he hit a respectable 24 homers in 2012). He’ll also need to avoid injuries, like the catastrophic collision on a play at the plate that ended his 2011 season after just 45 games.
Why he might not: It’s very simple – steroids. Braun tested positive for PED use during the 2011 playoffs, the postseason that followed his MVP season, but he avoided a 50-game suspension and kept the award through a successful appeal. Recently, his name’s cropped up again in PED talk, so suspicions alone could kill Braun’s chances, even if he continues to avoid punishment and has another MVP-caliber season.
Why he might not: It’s clear that 2011 was a breakout year for Kemp, but it was also his only full season that truly gave him an MVP shot. In previous years, he had never hit .300 or exceeded 28 home runs. He lacks the consistency of players like Braun, and last year showed his vulnerability to injury.
Why he might not: All things considered, Votto doesn’t look like a bad option if you’re making a bet. But like Kemp, he’s clearly not invincible and shouldn’t be expected to keep his numbers at staggeringly high levels for the length of his career.
Why he might not: Well, he’s still on the Pirates. Perennial cellar dwellers, the Pirates aren’t the toughest team to stand out on, but getting MVP recognition is another story. Even a crazily good season for McCutchen might not bring contention to Pittsburgh, and the award is often given to playoff-caliber teams (last year, Posey and Cabrera faced each other in the World Series). It’ll be a tough road to climb for McCutchen, but he has his youth, which should help.